Oil prices are set to post a third weekly gain on the back of Trump hindering supply from Iran and Venezuela, but his economic policies are threatening to damage demand in the long term.
Friday, March 28th, 2025
Trump has been the single biggest oil market mover in March. On the one hand, the US President tightened Venezuela sanctions and debilitated some 20 million barrels of Iranian oil, depriving China of discounted crude and adding fuel to the oil bulls’ fire. On the other hand, the long-term impacts of tariff wars could be quite damaging for oil consumption, as the $100 billion car import tariffs could trigger retaliatory measures from Europe or Japan. Overall, crude oil is set for a third weekly gain, with ICE Brent hovering around the $73.50 per barrel mark.
Trump’s Car Tariffs Stoke Growth Concerns. US President Donald Trump announced that he would impose a 25% tariff on automobile imports, seeking to raise $100 billion in revenue annually, however also raising concerns that such high-impact protectionist measures would stall global economic growth.
Trump’s Pressure Disrupts Iranian Exports. At least 11 VLCC tankers carrying Iranian crude have been stranded in territorial waters of Malaysia, seeing floating storage in the area rising to 18 million barrels, indicating Chinese refiners continue to stave off purchases as they weigh the impacts of US sanctions.
US Oilmen Warn Against China Shipping Tax. The American Petroleum Institute and other energy organizations have tried to dissuade the Trump Administration from slapping $1.5 million levies on Chinese-built tankers calling into US ports, saying such a move would hike freight costs for US exports.
BP Goes Full Circle on Iraqi Upstream. Following months of negotiations, UK oil major BP (NYSE:BP) has received final government approval from Baghdad to begin the redevelopment of the Kirkuk fields, aiming to produce 3 billion boe through a JV that would also involve Iraq’s North Oil Company.
Chinese Refiners Warm up to Canadian Oil. China’s largest private refiner, Rongsheng Petrochemical (SHE:002493), opened an office in Calgary to facilitate its purchases of heavy barrels from Alberta pumped through the TMX pipeline, immediately buying a June-arrival cargo from Suncor Energy.
Saudi Aramco Wants Back Its Indian Share. Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222), the national oil company of Saudi Arabia, is in negotiations with two Indian refiners, state-controlled ONGC and Bharat Petroleum, although the deals could fall through as the Saudis insist on supplying 90% of the refineries.
Nigeria Edges Closer to State’s Oil IPO. Nigeria’s state-controlled oil company NNPC is reportedly in the final stages of preparations for a much-anticipated IPO that could value the NOC at more than $300 billion, having turned into a fully commercial entity in 2021 with its government credit lines cut.
Vitol Eyes Full Exit from US Shale. Global commodities trader Vitol is reportedly contemplating a sale of its VTX Energy Partners subsidiary in a deal potentially worth more than $3 billion, offering some 46,000 boe/d of production across the Delaware basin located across 46,000 net acres.
India Stops Buying Venezuelan Crude. The tightening of US sanctions, with Donald Trump levying a 25% tariff on anyone buying Venezuelan oil, has prompted Indian refiners, most notably privately held Reliance Industries, to halt any imports from the Latin American country beyond April.
Gold Hits Record Again Amidst Tariff Frenzy. Gold prices rallied to another all-time this week, reaching $3,077 per ounce on Friday as the Trump administration’s automobile tariffs further sapped investors’ confidence, with US investment bank Goldman Sachs predicting a $3,300/oz price by the end of this year.
China Chokes Off Product Exports with Low Quotas. China’s Ministry of Commerce issued the 2nd batch of product export quotas for 2025, adding 104 million barrels to this year’s total of 260 million barrels, down 4% from a year ago as higher government levies restricted export economics for refiners.
India to Lift Restrictions on US Energy Imports. India’s government is considering lifting all import taxes on LNG imports to help lower Delhi’s $45 billion trade surplus with the United States, as Prime Minister Modi pledged to ramp up US energy purchases from $10 billion to $25 billion.
Tesla Readies for Saudi Expansion. Top US electric vehicle producer Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) will start sales of its cars in Saudi Arabia in April, 7 years after a funding dispute between Elon Musk and the Saudi sovereign wealth fund, seeking to disrupt the Middle Eastern expansion of China’s BYD and Lucid.
Brazil Expands Domestic Refinery Capacity. Brazil’s national oil company Petrobras (NYSE:PBR) has finished upgrading works at its Rnest refinery in Pernambuco state, boosting the plant’s capacity to 260,000 b/d and hiking the country’s diesel output by a further 82,000 b/d, needing fewer imports.
By Michael Kern for Oilprice.com
More Top Reads From Oilprice.com
- Trump: 25% Tariff On Anyone Who Buys Venezuelan Oil & Gas
- Iraq Hands BP Final Approval for Kirkuk Oil Development
- India Turns Away Russian Oil Tanker As Sanctions Evolve
